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Well I went to cash today intra day .. exited most things near thier highs for the day. I'll take two large range days on shrinkiing volume as a signal...
Things may go higher from here.. but I'd be cautious of some of those nasy large range black days we've been having.
the scan tonight produced 17.. only 2 of which were remotely interesting.
SMCR
AZC
Still trying to get a catch on something signifficant to call a high probability short entry. I don't need much as I don't think I'll be shorting allot ... but still want to have the option if we get into a down trend.
I may follow Signaltap on his Puts with CROX. Not shure yet. FNM and LOW look shortable.
Then again ETFC, LEAP,HANS,URI look good for the shorting the bottom 5 of the Russell 100. FNM is also in that list.
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Joined: 12/31/2005
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may be a wise move. indicators on indexes looking extended, volume a little light, and 62% retracement reached on the spy.
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Joined: 12/31/2005
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some of the gold stocks looking toppy, gold for one. or theres the horseman, rimm, goog, and apple, or just short the indexes if the rally fails.
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Joined: 3/21/2006
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I am having a field day with the short term bounces. Scott just look at the Techni-Trader scans and when the pre-market futures are positive and the scans show good numbers then find the best looking charts from the scans and use your Volume indicators (I also have a few good custom indicators for certain situations should they arise). Also use stochastics and the inverted VIX. Just use a 100 day Linear Regression line on price. Only view the stocks with a negative slope, then look for signs of a possible bounce using all the indicators that have been discussed on this forum for the last couple of years. You have to be there every second to baby-sit them once you are in them but you can take small profits here and there.
The next two charts will demonstrate what I mean. The first has already been successfull for me. I have put a number next to the criticle signs to look for -
1) A very basic indicator for volume anomalies - (c>o)and(c>(c1*1.05))and(c>avgh5)and(v>(v1*1.05))
2) Is simply OBV crossing up over its 30 day sma
3) Is a very basic version of what Tobydad uses to find rising TSV -
(tsv14>tsv14.1)and(tsv14.1>tsv14.2)and(tsv14.2>tsv14.3)and(tsv14.3<tsv14.4)
When all three of these come together I put them in a watchlist and look at them on my live streaming quotes and either day trade them or hold for a day or two or three.
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This is the second chart and I think that somthing might happen. All three conditions are being met, so we will see. Just keep in mind this is only one of my methods to catch the bounces you have to be creative and also have the time to watch the Market all day (I know that everyone cannot do this).
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"You have to be there every second to baby-sit them once you are in them but you can take small profits here and there." - - - dont have that luxury any more.
thos look nice ! !
Waht are some of the prefilters to catch the overall setup?
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Scott, I just start out with any watchlist that has a price and volume filter, I then look for any charts with a negative percent slope for the 100 day Linear regression line.
For every type of trading that I do the conditions have to be right.
the pre-market futures
the number of charts in my scans
the market conditions
I am curently training myself how to trade this kind of Market. I never should have sat out the July August- correction, I traded the February-March correction this way shorterm bouncing (at that time most of my capital was tied up in my Intermediate holdings) but I experimented a little with some success. and I am now applying some of those technics plus more that I learned since then.
The trick is as I have stated to many times maybe, Manage your Capital, your Risk and the trade...
Say hello to the little one for me...
Good luck.
Apsll.
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QUOTE (Apsll)
For every type of trading that I do the conditions have to be right.
the pre-market futures
the number of charts in my scans
the market conditions
Apsll,
What kind of pre-market futures would keep you out?? If they are very negative, have you ever considered the ultra short ETF's from Rydex and Proshares?? Thanks for your posts...
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QUOTE (Apsll)
the pre-market futures
the number of charts in my scans
the market conditions
Say hello to the little one for me...
Apsll.
Will do 
This is a neat plan and I'd like to play with it further. I've played bounces in the past fairly weel.. But this last correction hurt me. However I have my Long side plan... or plans actually. I have a strategy that is "Well enough " for choppy sidewayse markets. However my short strategies leave something to be desired.
It's probably best to find a few stocks and short them them and only them when the oportunity arises. I just get so enamored when I find new oportunities...And I'm averse to leavign shorts to ride.. as any kind of news can make them bounce.
BUT I think I'm getting closer. Firstly there is the inverse of my trend following methodology, minus the piggybacked orders. But what to use to find those that are ready for good entries? I'm probably going to fal back on Candle patterns and a few of the patterns I learned form Connors. They've been a pain to test and get clear results. But one thing I have noticed is that the results definately give clearly better results acorss a smaller sample of data. I'm thinknig this is becasue of some sort of prefiltering... Where a list already is asembled for some overarching characteristic THEN your entry rules come into play ona alost that is already groomed for probability in the direction the system generates trades... SO in testing across a list of stocks that are and were in down trends you'll naturally get a better result than testing across the broader market where all the little anomolies that make the scanners and software pullup trades that either don't apply or Were iffy. SO why not SCAN a Watchlist? These are only stocks that have the overarchign characteristic that is intended to be found as a foundation stone for the strategy... THEN the scan picks up the the entry keys... such as engulfing black. BUT And engulfind black is next to worthless on it's own.. howeve .. in the right context it has more weight... such as price having recently made a 5 day high.. is below the 50 ma and above or near the 20 ma and the 20 ma is below the 50.... Then perhaps The -DI is above +DI or some such thing.
ironically one I'm working with now ... which seems to be fairly effective is called "the double volume top method". This sees volume rising as a bad thing. Or I should say to quickly rising. I think I've suceeded in PCFing it.
H1>H60 AND V >= AVGV15 *1.5 AND C > C5 AND C>O
and it's ironic how it looks for what you would think is a good sign. But looking for a sudden surge of volume AFTER a run up is aparently a a great shorting que. However it works best at tops (for the omnicient) and in down trends... but often great signals come at the top of tops..... just if not more often on the way up more fake signals are given.
However after a decline the signal is totaly invalid. I need to think how to imporve it a bit.
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Thekubiaks, If the pre- market futures were bad and I had a low number of charts in my power scans then I would probably sit the day out on the sidelines and just work on research.
Right now 90% of my trading capital is in a money market account (nice and safe). I am playing the short-term bounces right now (succesfully). I do not know much about ETF's so I do not trade them (Is not there some maintenance fee associated with trading them)? I know even less about proshares.
I guess that I am the dinosaur of traders I am a pure bull that only trades long positions with the standard Amarican stock markets. I am only now perfecting my skills with the short term bounces during a down market. I am not risking a great deal of my portfolio so it is both educational and fun..
Thanks Apsll..
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Look what happened with CPWM an example that I plotted above. The indicators that I am useing will help to uncover these oppertunities. This is not the holy grail, but they will uncover hidden oppertunities in a down market. How you play them is the key to your success.
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Joined: 11/11/2006
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APSLL: How do you expect me to be creative, when there's folks like you around? What a cleaver idea! Seems almost as good as your TRIFECTA set-up. CPWM took off today like a homesick Angel!!
Another job well done!! I thank you again for sharing your ideas.
Mammon
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Thank you Mammon for your kind words. My only secret is that I find charts with successfull rallies and I go back to the beginning right before the break-out. I then study what all the indicators were doing at that time, especially Volume. I then try to design indicators to let me know when these same conditions are taking place. If one or two of my candidates work out I capture the profits and the ones that turn on me I sell as soon as I can to minimize the damage.
I still say that Intermediat to long term investing will net larger profits with less effort, but right now the Market is not giving that to us. We must do what the Market tells us to do, we are all slaves to the Market.
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Hi Apsll,
ETF's and ProShares are pretty much the same thing. ETF stands for Electronically traded fund. They're a basket of stocks so they trade like a fund but they're under one ticker and, if I'm mistaken, all trade on the AMEX and in that respect they trade like a stock. They are fantastic ways (in my opinion) to trade the indexes and the world markets. QQQQ, SPY, and DIA are three ETF's that Mr. Worden usually highlights. ProShares have now introduced inverse funds which go up when the market goes down. For instance, this morning I took a pretty strong position in the QID, which is the inverse of the QQQQs and trades at a ratio of 2:1, so for every 1% move the qqqqs make going down, the QID moves 2% up. I had a feeling the fed cut would be dissapointing to the market so yes, I played the news and won. (I had a tight stop believe me). Just this morning I got out of a nice UYG trade, which is the proshares that tracks the financial sector. By pure luckk, and because I liked the way it had broken the down trendline, I entered a couple days before Bush announced his plan to help the subprime mess. I closed it out this morning becase I kneww the fed cut would really hurt this ETF.
Anyway...I'm liking etf's more and more and proshares even more than that for their leveraged index and sector plays. it's a good way to avoid gaps and a comfortable way for me to short the market (by going long the inverse ETF's.) Anyway...hope I shed some more light on the topic.
David John Hall
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Joined: 12/31/2005
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what a laugh listening to those crybabys on cnbc, market didn't get their drugs. low volume was signal afterall.
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Joined: 4/18/2005
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APSLL:
Havent had much of a chance to do anything witht he above PCF's and strategy...Wife needed to use the computer today so I read and watched the baby. You might find Stan Wienstien's book "Secrets to proffiting in bull and Bear markets" interesting. Noting Revolutionaly in there.. but VERY clear chart examples and a neat little quiz att he end of each chapter.. I'm enjoying very much. Much of his work so far deals with trading Breakouts (which I'm usually averse to) And he spends allot of time discussing sorting out the good ones fromt eh bad ones. Allot of his favorite patterns and setups looks very much like allot of your setups and watched patterns... Just a slightly different way to view them.
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Apsll,
My appologies -- that's EXCHANGE traded fund not ELECTRONICALLY traded fund.
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Joined: 8/30/2005
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that Exchange looks good.
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Joined: 5/1/2007
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Niena:
Stan Weinstein is one of the best writers/teachers on technical trading. I learned years ago to forget about people with one-track minds.
In a bull market, look for 10-fors. In a bear market, look for "stock plunge kills thousands", that is, stocks with no reason to exist. There were a lot in 1999-2000, and most of them are gone.
The survivors, such as Amazon (which I thought would never turn a profit) tend to do very well. Others, such as AOL/Time Warner - I remember being shocked - stunned - that AOL was getting 55% of the merged company, when I rated AOL as about 5% of Time-Warner's value, remain below 2000 prices.
Here's one you may not have heard: In a bull market, technicians are king. In a bear market, watch the fundamentals. However, the TV news will highlight permabears in a bear market. Avoid them. Turn off the TV if necessary. Otherwise, you are likely to miss the beginning of the next bull market. Oh, if Fortune magazaine has a headline "The Death of Equities", as they did in August 1982, run to buy stocks. I did Sep 21, 2001 and also Oct 20, 1987 (although Dec 4, 1987 was the final bottom).
Oh, two things I learned from gamblers: Invest about one-third what your model says (does not mean don't go 100% long, just not more than 4-10% in one stock). And if you're doing bad, walk away from the table, take a week (on a month) off, and come back when you're mentally at your best. A poker game has no mercy on a drunk. The stock market has no mercy on those who won't re-evaluate their decisions.
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Thanks all for your input. But I have been studying charts from 2000 to 2003 (The bear Market) and I have found that there were many, many oppertunities to catch some really good bounces - Using my set-ups and indicators. I no longer fear the Bear Bring it on.
David thank you for sheding some light on the ETF's and Proshares, but that would take me out of my element. Scott it is good to hear that my original work, that has been sponed from many hours of researching chart after chart in all Market conditions is closely related to the works of Stan Wienstien.
The truth is that I am on a journey that will soon take me to my first Million. I will then fully retire (still in my fourties) and maybe write a book of my own. I am a pure chartest, I do not care much for fundimental or economic analysis. In my own way I have proved that it is not necassary to be bogged down by such encumbrances. If you were to follow my short path hidden within the annals of this forum you will see that I have found success in every attempt to further my knowledge concerning Technical analysis.
They say that 98% of those that dare to take on the Stock market come out on the short end. I feel as though I have been blessed with a gift (If it appears that I am boasting or bragging) that is not my intent. I have worked long hours on my research and I am not yet through. When or if my success makes it to print, this forum will be mentioned along with the Worden Brothers exellent software Telechart.
Thank you all for helping me in my time spent on this forum.
Apsll...
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This bounce strategy is posted above in teh PCF's you gave?
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Tllucero, very good advice you are sharing.
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"This bounce strategy is posted above in the PCF's you gave"?
Scott, the strategy that I use is to creat a watchlist that have volume and price filters already in place by you (what ever you feel comfortable with). I then sort the list by the 100 day linear regression line only keeping the charts with a negative percent slope. The next step is to sort this revised watchlist by one of the percent true indicators that I have posted above. What I like to do is to have two watchlists one that was sorted with the first condition and the other that was sorted with the second percent true indicator I then combine the results into one watchlist. (the charts should all have a value of 100 for their respective percent true indicator). I can now scroll through each chart to find the best set-ups (where the OBV is just crossing over the 30 day sma.
That is the entire strategy. Let me know what you come up with.
Good luck
Apsll.
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What a magnificent whipsaw! Anybody trading with stops has to be hurting. When I use stops, it's a buy low, sell high, because of days like this. Unfortunately, I didn't have much to sell this A.M. but a ton to buy (or cover) this P.M.
By *all* of my mathematical models built in real-time, using stops protects you against gains. One exception: when a small trader (e.g. under 10K, and you're underdiversified) stops are marginal. But if you have 4 or more stocks in three or more sectors, stops cost in the long run. So my models say. And so I trade.
But my models and my brain really don't like days like today (until I get to 25K and can day trade again). It feels - just not right - to not walk away with an extra 5K in my account with volatility. Sigh.
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"What a magnificent whipsaw! Anybody trading with stops has to be hurting." - - - -
it's a factor of where you place your stops.. and Whipsaws do happen however you place them. I'm not shure what models you are using but i'd personaly be highly suspect of them. However today was not to be unexpected as a whipsaw. Firstly ... volitility in general has been allover the place the last few months. 2ndly we had a huge down day the previous day ... So on the ultra short term possibly a bit oversold, IN need of some digestion reguardless. I personaly don't plan on entering on the day right after a large range day. However... this morning futures numbers were WAY out of whack... int he 15 min before market open S&P futures went from being up 14.00 (which is still high) to up 29.20. To me this says WHIPSAW ! ! 9/10 times.. and shure enough.. wait for the market to open up and settle a bit and I started entering my shorts and they worke out. Even the ones I killed becasue of their morning performance would have worked out. FNM had a huge range of movement today.
"(until I get to 25K and can day trade again). "- - - Daytrading is generaly how I loose money.. if not loose.. then cap my proffits. Generaly if I was proffitable for a segment of the day on a respectable trade.. I'd have been proffitable at the end of day and into the next.... even more so.
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Joined: 11/20/2007
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Techni-trader was mentioned in this thread so I googled it and saw it was a trading course. My question, to those that have taken it is, what did you think of it and would you recommend it to a beginner at technical analysis. I find your discussions here are always interesting to read. Thanks HH.
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to the complete beginner yes..I felt it was worth it. BUT it starts with topics for the COMPLETE beginner... they are branching out and creating more courses for various different things.. I got the "Basic Methodology Course" and the nightly emails for over a year now.. There isn't anything in the subsequent courses I have seen that wan't in the methodology course and the emails. I looked over the "Masters series on indicators and felt that I generaly knew al that was there". My suggestion would be the first level if you are a complete beginner and take a few months of the nightlies... the rest you'll be able to get either here or through the nightlies and corespondance with the Instructors.
Or you could get it all here.... may take more time.
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Hhanna85, I credit Techni-Trader with being the catalyst that propelled my understanding Technical analysis to the next level. It is ironic that this forum has led you to Techni-Trader, for me it was the other way around. I was led to Telachart through completing the Techni-Trader training course.
The course gives broad strokes on the fundimentals of market psycology and some Technical analysis, along with learning how to interpret candle-stick formations. The most valuable part of the course is learning how to understand the easyscans that they show you how to construct specifically for the Telachart software. They cover some of the Telachart indicators, but it will not take you long to form your own opinions on how best to use the indicators and the software. (do not make the same mistake that I did a while ago) I deleted the pre-set easyscans that come with the course and felt that I could do better without them. I was wrong. They have an elective course that breaks down the proper interpretations and use for each easyscan. I have since re-inserted the easyscans and rely on them very much to give me a sense of the market bias.
Other then some early reading material Long ago in reference to Technical Analysis, Techni-Trader is the best that I have come across..
Good luck.
Apsll.
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Joined: 11/20/2007
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scottnlena and Apsll, thanks for your response. I looked over their site today and ordered their free dvd. It looked good so I'll see how it goes. May you have a Marry Christmas and a profitable new year. HH
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I may look into this as well. Thanks for posting the info.
Mike
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